Extreme Heat Exposure and Neonate Death Nexus: Analysis of High Neonatal Mortality Burden Counties in Kenya

Abstract

Despite significant gains in infant and under-five survival in Kenya, neonatal mortality has remained largely stagnant over the past two decades. Emerging global evidence shows a strong link between extreme heat exposure and adverse birth outcomes. This study investigated the correlation between extreme heat exposure and neonatal mortality in Kenya’s five most-affected counties between 2000 and 2021. Research methodology: Using retrospective data from the World Bank Group’s climate portal and the UN Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME), the study analyzed trends in annual minimum and maximum surface air temperatures and relative humidity alongside neonatal death rates. Further, the study examined national and county-level mean annual temperature trends from 1963 to 2023. Results: Findings revealed no statistically significant correlation between neonatal mortality and temperature or humidity during the study period. While Kendall’s tau correlation showed a weak positive relationship between neonatal mortality and temperature from 2000 to 2007, this shifted to a negative correlation in later years—most pronounced in 2016 and 2021. Similarly, humidity exhibited fluctuating associations, with weak or no consistent correlation to neonatal deaths. Conclusion: The study results point to the urgent need for improved data quality and granularity at the county level to enable more nuanced, long-term analyses as well as use of more advanced data analyses tools. As Kenya continues to experience rising temperatures, further research is critical to unpack the complex pathways linking climate hazards to neonatal health outcomes.